Prospect Risks & Volumes Assessment

A decision to drill an exploration well with the objective to find a new oil or gas field must be based on a sound assessment of the prospect’s risks and of the volumes: What is the chance that a well will find hydrocarbons, and how much could it be? Risk and volume assessments form the basis for decisions to drill a well or not, and as such, it is the link between subsurface evaluation and the business aspects of the petroleum industry.

This 3 full-day course explains how risks and volumes can be assessed in a realistic manner based on a sound understanding of the geological details of the prospect and its regional geological setting and our play understanding.

This course can also be offered through Virtual Instructor Led Training (VILT) format.

Objectives:

• Translate geological understanding of prospects and hydrocarbon plays into realistic numbers and ranges for calculating the probability of Success (POS) and volume ranges of undrilled prospects.
• Know how Chance Factors for risk elements can be determined as objectively as possible.
• Confidently select uncertainty distributions that are consistent with the understanding of uncertainties in prospects.
• Understand how the input parameters for volume assessments impact probabilistically calculated volumes.
• Appreciate the volume promise and related uncertainties of undrilled prospects from expectation curves and frequency plots (probability density functions).
• Understand how to communicate prospect volumes, and when zero- or commercial cut-off volumes should be used.
• Understand the impact of dependencies between prospects and know how to add prospect volumes statistically correct for a realistic volume promise of a portfolio of prospects.
• Determine a realistic final POS for prospects with direct hydrocarbon indicators (DHIs) and/or controlled source electromagnetics (CSEM) anomalies.